Overview-Paul continued his steady, if not unspectacular, progress in 2008, and that actually might be part of the problem. He has always shown improvement in marginal increments, but nothing has ever really stood out about his tools. While he has the raw talent, he must show something impressive at some point to be thought of as a major league regular.
Hitting-He has solid bat speed, solid bat control, and solid power. Not one of those tools project to get significantly better in the future, but he can improve on his plate discipline, which has been below average. Paul does need significant work against left-handers though, mainly because he seems tentative when facing them, and the results reflect that.
Fielding-Paul can play left, right, or center, but he is much better as a corner outfielder. He used to throw in the mid-90s as a pitcher, and his arm strength in the outfield is elite. His range is only above average, and it's the only thing limiting him defensively. He continues to make improvements on his center field defense, but that's going to have to continue if he wants to play the position at the major league level.
Baserunning-An above average runner, Paul is a decent base stealer, but nothing spectacular. He needs to work on his jumps and be more efficient, especially if he wants to be effective in the bigs.
Mental-Has shown tremendous resilience throughout his life, and there have been no negative comments about his makeup.
Health-In the past, Paul has suffered some eye and back ailments, but it's nothing that affects him today. There hasn't been much concern over his ability to stay healthy.
Performance-His 2008 OPS of .841 represented a 55 point spike from 2007, and it seemed like the minor breakout year that everybody was looking for. However, when normalizing for park factors, his OPS falls to a less impressive .802. There's nothing particularly wrong with that number, but it just continues to the trend of slow and steady progress.
On the positive side, his LD% continues its upswing (19.6%), and he never seems phased when moving up a level in competition. That being said, he still strikes out too frequently, and walks somewhat little, for his minor power output. Speaking of that power output, his ISO seems to have stagnated over the past 4 years (.145-.145-.138-.147), and that doesn't bode well for his future projection. Another problem is Paul's inability to handle left-handed pitchers. Over the last 4 years, Paul has a .604 OPS against lefties, and a .838 OPS against righties.
In looking for a potential breakout to come, Paul did hit 7 home runs in the Mexican League during the winter, and it came with an .879 OPS. More importantly, he walked 26 times to 35 strike outs, a much better ratio. Granted, it's a small sample size against inferior competition, but it's the kind of thing you look for in 2009 if Paul wants to be thought of as anything more than a 4th outfielder.
Other-Good athletic ability, but his body lacks projectability. Paul had his home destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.
Projection-I could see Paul becoming a fringe-average starting center fielder for somebody. His power could bloom and lead to 12-14 HR annually, and he has always had the ability to hit for average. However, a more realistic prognosis is still as a very useful 4th outfielder, at least until he shows something more than average/slightly above average tools in every phase.
Paul is probably ready for a shot at the major leagues now, but he's sorta blocked at the moment. As such, he'll probably be kept in AAA until a spot opens up.
2/10/2009
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