As many have already realized, Guillermo Mota has turned his season around after an atrocious start. In his first 15 appearances, Mota's ERA (9.00) and WHIP (2.20) were both terrible. However, in his next 15 appearances, Mota has posted an ERA of 0.50 and a WHIP of 0.72.So with his season being the tale of two different pitchers, which one is the real Guillermo Mota? Well, I hate to disappoint everybody, but as with most things, the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes.
Mota's current ERA (4.36) and WHIP (1.39) are very similar to the numbers he has posted in the past 4 years. Furthermore, his FIP of 4.54 is nearly identical to his past 2 seasons. So while Mota was never as bad as he was at the start of the season, he's certainly not as a good he has recently shown either.
When I went looking for signs of improvement, I found it hard to find legitimate reasons. Mota's release points have been consistent throughout the year, his fastball was thrown harder at the beginning of the year, and his slider was sharper before the resurgence as well. However, I did find a more legitimate and quantifiable reason for his improvement: a plummeting Leverage Index. In other words, he's being used in situations that hardly affect the outcome of the game at all.
Last year with the Brewers, Mota's Leverage Index was 1.33, this year it's a mere 0.70, which is in the bottom 20 of all qualified relievers in the majors. If a quick peek at the Leverage Index play log isn't enough to convince you that this matters, then consider that his OPS against in low leverage situations (.679) is almost half of what it is in high leverage situations (1.211), so it's pretty obvious that Mota has benefited from the unimportant situations he has been thrown into.
Trivia Question-Can you guess the last time Mota was used in a situation where the Leverage Index was above 1.00?
All in all, Mota's status is basically the same as when he began the season. He's still a mediocre, borderline replacement level reliever that projects as late inning fodder going forward. So while you have to hope that this recent run turns him into a dominating reliever, those hopes have to come with some level of skepticism.
Trivia Answer-If you said June 19th against the Angels, then you win the prize of awesomeness. Notice the result of that game? Sweet!
