8/14/2009

Down On The Farm: Rookies Galore

Brett Wallach|RHP|R|20-The Dodgers are easing him into professional baseball, as he only has 14 1/3 innings in 7 starts. There's not really much performance to base any kind of opinion on him, but he currently has a rather average fastball with two off-speed offerings. If his projection turns into actual growth, he could be a steal. If not, you're looking at a rather pedestrian pitcher.

Daigoro Rondon|RHP|R|22-He tried to move up to low-A in 2008 but got shelled. He tried his hand at high-A in 2009 and had equally terrible results. Both failures are sizable setbacks in his development, but there's so much to like here that I can't get away from it. He has a live arm that can touch 96, and a potential strikeout pitch with his slider.

His strikeout rate (11.5) and walk rate (2.9) in Rookie-ball are again impressive, but unless he finds a way to prevent being hit so hard at more advanced levels next year, i'm going to have to drop him to the bottom. I'll have a profile out on him as well.

Steven Ames|RHP|R|21-A starter at Gonzaga, Ames has been used solely out of the bullpen as a professional and he has thrived. In 18 1/3 innings, he has struck out 29 and walked only 4, while surrendering a mere 2 runs.

He is a polished college pitcher, so he should be faring well at Ogden, but this is promising stuff from a 17th round pick. He doesn't have a plus fastball, so I wouldn't expect this level of dominance to continue, but he's proven he deserves a shot to start somewhere in A-ball.

Nick Gaudi|RHP|R|22-A closer in college, Gaudi has continued in that role at Ogden. Results have been positive thus far, with 17 strikeouts to 2 walks in 14 2/3 innings. He has a pretty average fastball, but has a split and slurve (slider?) that look promising. Upside is limited, but he could be a contributer, and should probably be in A-ball next year.

Matt Magill|RHP|R|19-Showing promise as a starter in his first professional season in a real competitive league. 7.1 K/9 speaks to his lack of dominance, but 2.3 BB/9 shows a level of command that isn't that common at his age. I assume he'll be back in Rookie-ball next year to continue his development, as he's still raw. I have a profile on him that should be coming up soon (or not (maybe (possibly))).

Fredy Quintero|RHP|R|21-I know absolutely nothing about his stuff because I haven't seen him pitch before. However, I do see that he has a 0.95 ERA in 19 innings, including 17 strikeouts and 9 walks. I'll try to find out more if I can, but being a reliever as a 21-year-old in Rookie-ball usually doesn't bode well.

Javier Solano|RHP|R|19-The second try at Ogden is paying off for the young Mexican hurler, as he has 19 strikeouts in 18 innings with only 8 walks, a large improvement from last year's disaster. I have no idea about him besides a statistics sheet.

Andy Suiter|LHP|R|22-14 walks and 9 strikeouts in 10 innings at Ogden sounds bad until you realize he had 41 walks and 22 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings at the University Of California At Davis. He throws hard with a slurve breaking ball, so he has the goods to be a solid lefty reliever, but he can't stay within the strike zone at all.

Gorman Erickson|C|R|21-Drafted out of high school in 2006, the Dodgers brought him along slowly, but finally let him start in a real league in 2009. so far, the results have been great. His line at Ogden is .328/.389/.516/.905 with a .188 ISO. He makes a lot of contact (14.1 K%) and takes his fair share of walks (9.2 BB%) to boot. I haven't seen him play yet, but he's certainly on my radar now.

J.T. Wise|C|R|23-Logan White may have gone overboard in his response to critics who said he doesn't go after enough raw power in drafts, as the Dodgers now have a ton of guys with raw power but poor contact skills, and Wise is another. At Ogden, he's .277/.362/.446/.807, but with a 25.3 K%. He only has 4 home runs, but there's potential for much more. Those statistics don't look too terrible until you realize that's a 23-year-old, 4-year college veteran, and he's striking out 25% of the time in Rookie-ball.

Austin Yount|C|R|22-Primarily a third baseman in college, the Dodgers converted him to catcher to maximize his skills. So far at Ogden he has put up a .298/.436/.415/.851 line with impressive plate discipline. Yount has 23 walks to 22 strikeouts in 94 at-bats, which bodes well for handling advanced pitching.

Bryant Hernandez|SS|R|21-This was more of a performance pick than a tools pick, in my opinion. He had an excellent 2009 at Oklahoma, and he has a collection of fringe-average to above-average tools, but nothing that really excites. He currently has a .775 OPS at Ogden, and he'll probably get moved to A-ball in 2010.

Chris Jacobs|1B|R|20-His third year in Rookie-ball, Jacobs is still more potential than production. Don't get me wrong, his .292/.385/.472/.857 line with a .179 ISO is plenty impressive for his age, but there's so much more there. His 12.4 BB% is solid, but that 36.8 K% must come down if he's going to have success at higher levels. The Dodgers could try him at A-ball next year, but there's nothing wrong with taking it slow in Rookie-ball until he figures it out, because if/when he does, he will probably move very fast.

Kyle Orr|1B|R|20-Terrible. I think that's the best word to describe his career as a professional thus far. He's spent three years at Rookie-ball, and his highest OPS was .679 in 2008. His highest batting average is this year at .231, and the reason for that is his 32.7 K%, which is actually better than last year. Overall though, the most disturbing thing is that there has been virtually no progress despite repeating levels. While a guy like Jacobs is getting better, you could argue Orr is getting worse.

He still has plus power potential, but his plate discipline and recognition are atrocious. Seriously. If he can fine tune those aspects, I think he could be a fine prospect, but the problem is that those aren't necessarily things that just appear overnight, and I don't see any signs that he's trending in that direction.

Nick Akins|OF|R|21-Yet another player with large power potential and huge holes in his swing. He destroyed the Arizona League with a .333/.397/.658/1.055 line, but that's not real important to me. He still struck out 30 times in 120 at-bats against a bunch of teenagers experimenting with their stuff. That is...not a good sign. It'll be interesting to see how he does in Ogden next year, because if he continues to strikeout against Rookie-ball off-speed stuff (his problem) then I fear to see him against advanced pitching.

Brian Cavazos Galvez|OF|R|22-By my observation, I think this could turn out to be one of the more savvy picks the Dodgers made in the 2009 draft. Many people doubted his pop because he played in the college version of Coors Field (Isotopes Park), but he has acquitted himself nicely thus far, putting up a ridiculous .325 ISO. That power has helped him put up an overall line of .335/.359/.660/1.019. Better yet, his other tools are solid as well, and he makes frequent contact (13.9 K%). But, and there's always a "but", he hasn't shown any willingness to take a walk yet (2.5 BB%). On one hand, there's little reason to walk when you are hitting the stuffing out of the ball, but on the other, he never showed much interest in walking in college either. Either way, it should be interesting to see him somewhere in A-ball next year.

Blake Smith|OF|R|21-This year's second round draft pick has had a terrible professional debut. Between the Arizona League and Ogden, his line is .211/.342/.305/.647 with 35 strikeouts in 95 at-bats. That's bad, especially for a college player, but these things can happen. There's some worry because he's showing little power and he can't make contact, but the walk rate is there, and some patience should be given. If he's still hacking away next year i'll go all Chicken Little on him, but not right now.