8/10/2009

Down On The Farm: Withrow World

Chris Withrow|RHP|AA|20-After posting a 2.96 FIP and 10.95 K/9 in high-A, the Dodgers deemed him worthy of a promotion to AA. Unfortunately, he had a rough go of it in his first start, giving up 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Going forward, an improvement in control and strikeout rate maintenance are things to look for.

Victor Garate|LHP|AA|24-He's about as ready as he's ever going to be. With an elite ERA (1.94) backed up by a strong FIP (2.89) and an outstanding strikeout rate (10.13 K/9), Garate looks prepared. Like with Brent Leach before him, the walk rate concerns me (4.17 BB/9), but he has been excellent this year.

Javy Guerra|RHP|AA|23-Been a bit unlucky in his past few outings with the hits against him, but his control seems to have settled down considerably. In his last 9 2/3 innings, he has struck out 10 and walked only 2, which represents a huge improvement from his 4 strikeouts against 9 walks in his previous 6 1/3 AA innings.

Matthew Sartor|RHP|AA|24-He's usually a strike thrower with a high strike out rate, which is what encourages me about his big league chances, but recently his control has been killing him. I hope to get some video of Sartor at some point, as he just recently entered my radar.

James Adkins|LHP|AA|23-Still has more walks (54) than strikeouts (53) on the season. I'd still like to see how he'd do as a reliever.

Travis Chick|RHP|AA|25-He used to be a pretty solid prospect, but his stuff had gotten progressively worse before stabilizing a few years ago. With his lack of a third pitch, i'm very surprised nobody has thought to make him a reliever yet, as he's one who I think could benefit from the move. Hopefully the Dodgers are the ones to try it out, because he's certainly not a big leaguer as a starter right now.

Andrew Lambo|OF|AA|20-More and more this is seeming like a lost year for him. His line currently sits at .266/.317/.426/.743, which is hardly what you would expect from a top prospect. There is some silver lining, however, as his walk rate has maintained (7.1%), and his strikeout rate has actually sharply decreased (18.7%). His power has held steady (.160 ISO), but I would almost have liked to see him strikeout more in exchange for greater power.

Make no mistake though, this has been a huge letdown year from him, but it's going to take more than a single downer as a 20-year-old in AA for me to give up on his great talent for hitting. Let's just say he has a lot to prove next year.

Lucas May|C|AA|24-Perhaps the most impressive thing about May's 2009 season is his newfound ability to control the strike zone. His BB% (13.6%) has almost doubled from his previous seasons, and his K% (28.1%) has remained intact, for better or worse.

As a result of his plate discipline, May has posted a 4-year best in OPS at .862. However, before people start talking about him replacing Russell Martin, just remember that his BABIP is .385, about 100 points higher than his previous two years, so let's not get so excited yet. The biggest negative of all might be his inability to hit righties (.662 OPS), which may eventually leave him as a platoon option.

Thomas Giles|OF|AA|25-A late bloomer, Giles was destroying the Cal League (.983 OPS) so the Dodgers promoted him to AA and he hasn't stopped. In 63 games, he has hit 10 homers and put up a line of .275/.386/.558/.944.

That's not to say there aren't problems, however. He's old for his level, he strikes out a lot, and he can't hit lefties at all (.374 OPS). Still, he might be worth looking into as a possible reserve or solid organizational depth.

Gabriel Martinez|1B|AA|26-He is on a four year ISO increase (.134/.161/.174/.226), and he has regained his previous ability to control the strike zone (12.2 BB%). However, he still strikes out a ton (29.6 K%), and his current line is powered by a .385 BABIP, about 50 points higher than his norm. Given his age, this is certainly not a guy that is going to replace James Loney down the road, but he might make a good backup or third option at AAA.

11 Comments:

Tripon said...

I thought Chick was released?

kensai said...

That would be news to me. Everything I see says he's just injured.

Matthew said...

i heard a scout on BA say that he scouted one of james adkins games recently and his top Speed on his fastball was 85 MPH

Steven M said...

I am not worried a bit about Lambo, I think this was a learning year for him...he is 20! I think he comes back next year and tears through AA. And hopefully he will be ready by the time manny leaves.

Matthew said...

maybe Thomas Giles can become a player like the Greg Dobbs of the Phillies

kensai said...

Matthew-Sounds about right. Only thing he has going for him is his slurve.

Steven M-Yeah, that's why I said i'll give him another year before I start dropping him.

Matthew-That would be best case, sure.

Mike De Leon said...

UGH! I knew deN raped the farm to make some stupid trades but this is ridiculous. Most of the guys profiled are 24 or older, IOW old for the league and still not exactly tearing it up.

kensai said...

Frustrating, isn't it? In my mind, you basically have 1 legit rotation prospect, 1 legit field prospects, and 3 solid relief prospects. That's about all we have in AA right now. :o

I Alivandi said...

With Hudson almost certainly a Type A again and given that his deal is cheap enough to offer arbitration, hopefully the Dodgers have at least 2 first rounders this year. With Wolf profiling as a Type B, Logan White could have 5 First and Compensatory picks.

kensai said...

We won't after Ned offers Hudson a 5-year 50 million dollar extension. :o

I Alivandi said...

kensai - Here's hoping McCheap rears his head to cut that one off at the pass.

Speaking of second basemen, who the hell possessed Juan Castro. Same defense, only this guy can hit.