I was largely inspired to write about this topic by Mark Timmons' latest post over at L.A. Dodger Talk. In it, he doubts the Dodgers' ability to win with Jonathan Broxton in the closer role.How would you like to have the five wins that Broxton blew back right about now? The Dodgers would be looking pretty good with those 5 more wins. We’d be looking at a 9-1/2 gme lead instead of a 4-1/2 game lead!Now I suppose I could address every point in these two paragraphs, but i'd rather concentrate on a couple of specifics.
Here’s the bottom line: Jon Broxton has a career 65% save percentage and George Sherrill has an 81% save percentage (by contrast, Mario Rivera has a 92% save percentage). If you continue with him as your closer, the Dodgers will go home for the playoffs. It’s your call, Joe! We also have a guy at AAA (Josh Lindblom) who has the guts of a cat burglar and whom I believe was born to be a closer. Jon Broxton has the guts of a purse snatcher! Kensai at Memories of Kevin Maloneargues (very lucidly) that Broxton’s stats indicate he IS clutch. All I can say is “Scoreboard” – a 65% closing percentage is unacceptable!
Foremost, I think it's important to start off by saying that save percentage isn't at all indicative of a closer's skill. Why? Mainly because the save itself is invented lunacy.
A closer could get a blown save for allowing a single run to score when entering the game with the bases loaded and no outs. Yet, in a different scenario, a closer could get a save for allowing back-to-back home runs.
Such a metric with such varying room for error and no founding in any sort of empirical evidence truly is...well...garbage.
All that said, if we insist on using the save, I think we can use it more accurately while simultaneously give it some context.
From 2005-2007, Broxton was a reliever of some type, and he accumulated a total of 5 saves, 45 holds, and 11 blown saves over that span.
2008 was a different scenario for Broxton, mainly because Takashi Saito went down on July 12th with an elbow injury. Since the time Saito handed over the job, Broxton had 14 saves in 17 chances with a 2.76 ERA. All three of those blown saves occurred in the 9th inning with a one run lead. One of those blown saves even came on an unearned run. By contrast, as a setup man that year, Broxton had 13 holds and 5 blown saves with a 3.40 ERA. Two of those blown saves occurred in games which Broxton did not surrender an earned run.
This year, he's spent all year as a closer, and he has saved 25 games while losing the lead on five occasions. Three of those blown saves came in situations where there was a one run lead, including one where he inherited two runners with one out.
Overall, Broxton has protected the lead 79.7% out of the closers role (5 Saves/58 Holds/16 Blown Saves), and 82.9 in the closers role (39 Saves/8 Blown Saves).
So what does all that mean? To me? Not much, honestly. I have always believed in Broxton's talent, and the statistics support the fact that he is not a choker. To others though? I think this exploration into fact finding should show that he is not worse off as a closer. In fact, barring his toe injury, he has been significantly better as a closer since he took over midway through 2008.
Still though, like I said in today's earlier post, the bigger and more pertinent question is what the Dodgers do now, since the toe injury is indeed a part of reality for the rest of the year. Late last night (early this morning?), I really had no idea. However, now I think the best option is to put Broxton on the disabled list and get him some rest. Hopefully it helps him be a more effective closer down the stretch.
Going back to the post that started all of this, I think it's important to remember that the sentiment being expressed there is not all that uncommon among Dodger fans. In fact, I believe that's how the overwhelming majority of people feel at the moment. However, I think therein lies the problem. It's a normal emotional reaction to a negative occurrence, but it's emotional nonetheless.
I know I get accused from time to time of thinking too big picture and not living enough in the moment, but that's just my own personal way of dealing with the ups and downs of the sport. It's what I tried to do when I was playing, and as a fan, I think it helps me from going completely insane while dealing with the quirks of this great game.
