Chad Billingsley Needs Rest

I was in the midst of writing a long piece explaining why Chad Billingsley's problems are more than likely being caused by fatigue or injury, but then I stumbled upon Jon Weisman's latest post over at Dodger Thoughts.

Time for Chad Billingsley to skip a start – not as a demotion

Maybe things will rebound on their own – look at Cole Hamels' recent turnaround from a 4.78 ERA on August 21. But in the absence of clear answers, I'd bet on fatigue.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Swear!

As many of you who read the comments know, i've been banging the drum on this fatigue or injury thing for a while now. At first, I didn't think his struggles were injury related, that we were just searching for reasons he was performing poorly. However, after delving a little deeper, it's becoming more and more logical to assume that something is not right with his body.

Billingsley hasn't gone more than 100 pitches since his start on July 10th, and while that alone isn't an indicator, it sure is weird when you consider that he went over that limit in 15 of his first 18 starts, and he never threw less than the 94 pitches he dealt in his first appearance of the season. Since July 10th, Billingsley has gone 94 pitches or less in 8 of his 10 starts, which I believe legitimately brings into question concerns about his off-season conditioning being setback due to his broken leg, and whether or not the dual hamstring strains he suffered earlier in the season are still affecting him.

Anyway, Jon goes on to explain a multitude of things that I wanted to point out, but he does it more eloquently anyway, so i'll just let him explain.

While so many people fretted over the Dodgers bullpen earlier in the season, Billingsley was worked harder than anyone. With other Dodgers starting pitchers failing to get past the sixth inning, Dodgers Manager Joe Torre seemed determined to push Billingsley as hard as he could. We don't know for sure if that's had an effect on Billingsley in the second half, but it's the first hypothesis I'd test. After all, Billingsley showed a rebound in performance after he returned from his hamstring layoff. Rest might bring the answer that Billingsley is searching for.

This theory doesn't have to be exclusive from what I said. It could be a combination of overuse in the first half and his injuries.

Since i'm nerdy though, i'll additionally debunk the rumor that Billingsley's velocity is the problem.

A lot of people would use this as evidence that he's not tiring, but if his arm is healthy, I don't see why his velocity would be the thing to go. As a pitcher, when you're tired, the first thing to go is your legs, and with it usually goes your release point and command. I'd say that's an accurate description of what's happening right now. Remember, command isn't only shown in walks, it's in the location of everything, including pitches right down the middle that normally wouldn't be there.

The Dodgers should skip one of his starts, not because he's a lost cause, but because he's the opposite.

Genius. :o