Time for Chad Billingsley to skip a start – not as a demotionThat's exactly what I was going to say. Swear!
Maybe things will rebound on their own – look at Cole Hamels' recent turnaround from a 4.78 ERA on August 21. But in the absence of clear answers, I'd bet on fatigue.
As many of you who read the comments know, i've been banging the drum on this fatigue or injury thing for a while now. At first, I didn't think his struggles were injury related, that we were just searching for reasons he was performing poorly. However, after delving a little deeper, it's becoming more and more logical to assume that something is not right with his body.
Billingsley hasn't gone more than 100 pitches since his start on July 10th, and while that alone isn't an indicator, it sure is weird when you consider that he went over that limit in 15 of his first 18 starts, and he never threw less than the 94 pitches he dealt in his first appearance of the season. Since July 10th, Billingsley has gone 94 pitches or less in 8 of his 10 starts, which I believe legitimately brings into question concerns about his off-season conditioning being setback due to his broken leg, and whether or not the dual hamstring strains he suffered earlier in the season are still affecting him.
Anyway, Jon goes on to explain a multitude of things that I wanted to point out, but he does it more eloquently anyway, so i'll just let him explain.
While so many people fretted over the Dodgers bullpen earlier in the season, Billingsley was worked harder than anyone. With other Dodgers starting pitchers failing to get past the sixth inning, Dodgers Manager Joe Torre seemed determined to push Billingsley as hard as he could. We don't know for sure if that's had an effect on Billingsley in the second half, but it's the first hypothesis I'd test. After all, Billingsley showed a rebound in performance after he returned from his hamstring layoff. Rest might bring the answer that Billingsley is searching for.This theory doesn't have to be exclusive from what I said. It could be a combination of overuse in the first half and his injuries.
Since i'm nerdy though, i'll additionally debunk the rumor that Billingsley's velocity is the problem.
A lot of people would use this as evidence that he's not tiring, but if his arm is healthy, I don't see why his velocity would be the thing to go. As a pitcher, when you're tired, the first thing to go is your legs, and with it usually goes your release point and command. I'd say that's an accurate description of what's happening right now. Remember, command isn't only shown in walks, it's in the location of everything, including pitches right down the middle that normally wouldn't be there.The Dodgers should skip one of his starts, not because he's a lost cause, but because he's the opposite.Genius. :o
13 Comments:
Agreed. Skip a start. Take it easy with Bills. He broke his leg last winter. He's had hamstring issues. Plus he was overworked early in the season. If they're interested in Chad having a long Dodger career, they need to make sure he's OK physically and mentally. Right now, they're are plenty of arms who can step in for him.
I don't mind them skipping a start, but I think his problems have been more issues with luck and Torre's quick hook than anything relating to fatigue. His BABIP against is .346 over the last month and his seasonal FIP is a healthy 3.62. Also, I still don't get why he isn't up near 60% with his fastball. He has a ton of movement and plenty of velocity to up his usage rate, and he was more successful last year when he threw it more.
That said, I wouldn't mind seeing him in better condition next year. He doesn't need to be shredded like Kevin Brown, but taking some of that gut off and dealing with his obvious issues with water retention couldn't hurt.
I realize the broadcast gun is not the thing to go by, but usually it's in the low-90s for Chad, while yesterday it seemed to be mid-80s quite a few times on pitches that I thought were fastballs.
Anyone have Gameday? Or am I just completely off-base here?
Vin mentioned a number of times the speed of pitches. Universally it was about 5mph higher than what the broadcast gun said... so take both of them with a grain of salt.
Gameday seemed to have most of his fastballs in the low 90s. I agree with Jon and Kensai. Have Chad skip a turn.
KK - The gun was way off. Generally 4 MPH off. When he was hitting 90, Vin was saying 94. Not that Chad should always be there, because he is most effective around 92-93. He should be rearing back sometimes, however, to blow hitters away.
Stig, Dude Abides, I Alivandi- Thanks, it seemed odd he would be in the mid-80s so much with what looked to me like fastballs.
Plus I always thought the broadcast gun was fast, so it really threw me off.
KK - Broadcast gun depends on channel and park. KCAL gun is always slow. PT gun is usually tied to the Dodger Stadium gun, but I think it might be the same slow gun at away games, except where the team is another FSN team.
Alireza-Not worried about his stuff as much as his inability to throw 100 pitches now.
KempKershaw-Off base, his velocity is up to like 93-94.
I hope Torre is just posturing. After reading this morrnings paper it sounds like he is not going to skip Billingsley. It's getting hard to watch.
Torre is stubborn. :o
kensai - Like I said, if Torre doesn't have a quick hook, Billingsley is throwing 100 pitches.
I think it's likely that there is a reason he keeps hooking him before 100. Even when he looks good.
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