First, there's Matt Kemp. Despite Kemp’s power tendencies and relatively high strikeout rate, Kemp is also a BABIP Superstar, but he's unlike other players similar to him in those regards because of his speed; a reflection of that is that Kemp has a 12.8 percent rate of infield hits per ground ball this season. He also rarely pops out when he doesn’t miss, doing so only 4.6 percent of the time this season, and only 2.0 percent of the time in 2008. He also hits the ball very hard, allowing many line drives and outfield flies to fall in as well. This year, he has a BABIP of .359, even higher than my .346 projection.I only mention this now because there has been past speculation about Kemp's high BABIP tendencies and what it meant for his future. A lot of people thought his batting average would eventually come back down to Earth, but I defended him because I believed his speed helped him beat out a good portion of the high amount of ground balls he hit, and he also drilled a lot of line drives.
While I suppose the study itself is still partially inconclusive, it's quite clear that any expectation for Kemp's batting average to fall based on his high BABIP is rooted in false assumptions. Barring a change in skill or ball distribution, Kemp's batting average should remain in the .290-.310 range.
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And this presumes he won't keep up his trend of decreasing his K rate and increasing his BB rate. Kemp could easily contend for a batting title if his K rate drops and he maintains his BABIP.
As i've said, he's my favorite dodger player, i've always seen this, and i think now those line drives that used to go into the gaps for doubles are what's turning into homeruns. He's always hit the ball very very hard it was all a question of when he'd learn to drive the ball and now that he has, he's freakin dangerous...he if continues this pace, there's no doubt we can make the WS
Well, if he hits more homers and his BABIP remains the same, his AVG will go up anyway.
I'm glad to see this article. I've always thought there has been a little too much emphasis put on the BABIP stat (with hitters and pitchers) in some cases, and this piece shows that. Some people just hit the ball really hard consistently. And some are really fast too.
It's an established fact...Kemp is fully locked into beast mode.
Rob - Slappy is the Beast, Kemp is in Bison Mode.
Incidentally, I was checking KABC to see if the Dodger pre-game was on yet and it appears they have that fucking nut Mark Levine on in the afternoon now. To me, he is even worse than Limbaugh the Addict, just with a smaller audience. When will he get burried? Better yet, how about the Dodgers move to KNX and we never have to worry about reception again?
Alireza-If his strikeout rate drops and he continues the same trends, then yeah, I think he could bump it up even further.
Tim-Well yeah, part of the problem with the BABIP though is that I think he's learning to hit more flyballs, which is good for his overall production, but probably bad for his batting average.
Part of the reason his BABIP is so high is because he hits so many grounders, but i've noticed he's hitting a lot of long flyballs nowadays.
BrettLovesKemp-I don't think people were wrong, I just think they interpreted the data incorrectly. Statistics is garbage in, garbage out. With hitters, there is definitely an individual BABIP component with regression to the mean around .300 or so. Pitchers is a little more tenuous, but i'm leaning towards individual BABIP with regression around .300 as well.
kensai- Interesting article on Hudson/Belliard/Torre:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/torre-makes-his-team-worse
Ok, this has nothing to do with Matt, but it is a very concerning question. On MLBTR, there was a discussion about Ronnie Belliard. He has risen to type B status, with Hudson(I believe) still being a type A. If Hudson will not resign, what do you(Kensai and the other readers) feel about a platoon at 2B with DeWitt and Belliard. you let DeWitt get consistent ABs, save money by not commiting 2 or 3 yrs at 7-10m for Hudson, and allow the young guys to stick their foot in the door. im not sure about Belly all the time, but a couple of the MLBTR commenters brought it up. Just curious what everyone thought. Remember, with this, if Belliard does struggle, DeJesus or even Hu can take over his spot.
In AAA, it would allow for Hu to be the SS, DeJesus at 2B, and Abreu(if he isnt dealt in the Garland deal) or Baez to be the 3B... It could be a possible route...
to anyone who doesnt know, im posting under LDY4L, but it is coming up as a code. i have no idea why, btw
If Ronnie Belliard is up to Type B status, it becomes even easier to let him go and get a draft pick.
LOL.
A supplemental pick for Ronnie Belliard? Are you shitting me? I'm all over that.
kensai - Take a look at Kemp's 2009 swing. It is a hybrid lift/drive swing that I think will keep his rates similar, only with more homers. Unlike Ethier, who has a beautiful but traditional lefty uppercut/one hand follow through now, Kemp's swing stays level until the very end, when he lets go and achieves lift. I think that keeps his BABIP high without sacrificing fly ball power as his old two handed swing did.
On Belliard - I think arbitration is a great risk to take. At just $1.9m this year and with his year over year counting stats likely to take a dive, even with the hot streak, I don't think he makes more than the $3m he will be worth if he accepts. Otherwise, someone else gives him more years and the Dodgers get a pick. I would actually worry about Hudson accepting and getting a raise on about $7.5m.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/elias-rankings-update-2.html
this is a link to MLBTR and a link to the elias rankings. Under the link it says 'new devolpments' and it says Belly went from none to B.
Lyd4l - That presumes Bajek's system is correct.
Alireza-Well, either way, if he hits more flyballs, that's going reduce the likelihood of hits. Though the best example of what you're talking about is Albert Pujols, which would be great, obviously.
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