It appears Orlando Hudson might no longer be the Dodgers' starting second baseman.I believe a large portion of the fans are clamoring for Belliard to start because of his hot hitting since he was acquired. However, there are those like Dave Cameron from FanGraphs who believe that starting Belliard would be the wrong move to make.
Manager Joe Torre sounded non-committal Sunday as recent acquisition Ronnie Belliard played in place of Hudson for the second consecutive game.
Belliard simply is an inferior player to Hudson. His entire production bump since the trade to LA is a function of a 25% HR/FB rate that has allowed him to slug .589 in 18 games. If you think that's sustainable, I've got a bridge to sell you. Belliard is a swing-at-anything hack without the contact or power to make that kind of approach work. In 204 plate appearances before the Nationals shipped him to LA, he posted a .297 wOBA.So what about me? Well, i'm not in any particular camp.
He's not a defensive wizard. He doesn't run well. He's not as good of a hitter. The only thing Belliard can outdo Hudson in would be some kind of eating competition.
When October rolls around, Torre better have Hudson installed back at second base and Belliard on the bench where he belongs. Any other alignment will be a blow to the Dodgers chance of winning a World Series.
While I don't disagree with anything Cameron said about Belliard, i'm not so sure Hudson is that good of a player either. I mentioned that Hudson was a rather mediocre hitter at the beginning of the season, and while he made me look like an idiot for a while, his offensive production has come down to about his neutral park norms for recent times.
My current stance is that if Torre wants to play Belliard during the regular season until his luck runs out, then so be it. I'm not sure Hudson's true talent level is so significantly better that it would be foolish not to start him (like would be the case with say, Manny Ramirez and Juan Pierre). However, when it comes to the playoffs, i'm not quite as sold on the idea of Belliard starting. After all, the Dodgers won't be playing the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres and Nationals in October, they'll be facing elite staffs, and you generally want to go at them with your best players.
Everybody is reeling off these comparisons to Marlon Anderson in 2006, but while he may have had a 1.243 OPS for the Dodgers that year, his OPS in the postseason was .692. I don't blame him though, he was never as good as he showed during the regular season after that trade. And neither is Belliard.
Remember, hot and cold streaks start and end quite randomly. That's not a stat nerd thing either. Everybody who has played any sport knows that there's no switch you turn on and off. Sometimes you just feel like God and you're drilling everything. A week later, you go 1-4 in a game, then 0-4 the next day, and before you know it, you're 1 for your last 21, and everybody's asking you why you suck. Point being, if you want to chance it that Belliard's hot streak will continue, I don't have any real issue with it. Personally though? I'd rather not risk it.
46 Comments:
Although I think Hudson is the better all around player, I think Torre needs to ride the hot bat until it starts to cool off. This time of the year, it's nice to have some hot bats.
I wonder how much longer it lasts though.
Kensai - I know, I wonder the same thing. I didn't understand the Belliard trade. I thought the Dodgers had enough guys who could play that position after Hudson. But now, I can't imagine Castro, Loretta, DeWitt or Hu hitting the way Belli has. It's a pleasant surprise when Ned pulls these deals off.
I hate giving Ned any kind of credit. I think he's a schmuck.
It is, but do the Dodgers really lose the division without Belliard? I honestly don't think so. :o
Remember, all of these trades are pretty much evaluated in the sense of what they do in the postseason, because honestly I haven't been that worried about their chances recently.
Like Sherrill has been excellent, but has he really done anything that the rest of the bullpen hasn't? Comes down to what they can all do in the playoffs for me.
Off-topic, but whatever.
I think we might stand a chance at Chone Figgins...if we had the money. It's not much of a distance from Anaheim to LA, and He'd be united with his supa-friend Juan Pierre.
Kensai - agreed. The Dodgers still win the division without Belliard. It goes to show that sometimes a change of scenery and a winning environment could help.
look at what someone on ourdodgers.com just said to me on the subject of Garland v Kershaw:
"Of course I know his ERA is lower...so what? His ERA last year was 4 and a quarter...
And you're still forgetting the most important point, the point others have talked about in this thread as well, and this is championship experience...
Kershaw will be a great pitcher in the future when he's learned some control of the strike zone, but he's still not a better pitcher than Garland at this point..."
Kensai - as far as Sherrill, I think if Ned doesn't get Sherrill, Torre abuses the shit out the rest of the bullpen, especially Hong Chi Kuo.
telciram - Figgins to play 2B next year?
telciram - or, trade Loney, move Blake to 1B, Figgy at 3B?
Cabell-or even trade blake. Or try furcal at 2nd and figgins at SS.
telciram - How much trade value could Casey Blake have at his age and with the money he's owed.
Plus, Figgins will probably have some pretty hefty contract demands. I can't see Frank dishing out the money or the years for Figgins.
Penos - DeWitt could pretty easily go on a hot streak of this variety.
That said, Belliard cost a bit too much, as Garate is poised to kind of be a George Sherrill clone. Also, his defense isn't as good.
telciram - I love Figgins, but he really needs to be playing 3B. He is elite there, as opposed to average at 2B. I do think he would be better at SS than at 2B, but he is probably going to win the AL Gold Glove, and actually deserve it, at the hot corner. Blake's value drops precipitously if he moves to 1B, where his production isn't better than Loney's with a normalized BABIP and even a little power at home.
You're dreaming if you're going to try to play Figgins at SS.
This team doesn't need Figgins, it probably doesn't need Hudson next year, and it probably needs Blake if he can put up similar production that he put up this year. Blake has a 117 OPS+(.278/.364/.465 in 551 PAs) in 2009, Figgins in 2009? only a 106 OPS+ (.295/.394/.390 in 680 PAs)
A .030 trade of OBP for a net gain of .075 of slugging makes sense.
Tripon - No it doesn't, especially given Figgins' other qualities. While Blake has improved both with the eye test and metrically on defense, he is nowhere near the run saver Figgins is. Also, the speed thing isn't close. Further, the Dodgers issue will not be power, especially next year. Their one real weak link is OBP at the top of the line up.
The other thing to take into consideration is Figgins' age. He will be 32 next year. How many good years does he have left?
The problem is they can't trade Furcal.
Period. :o
My only problem with replacing Blake with Figgins is that you have to pay Figgins money and you aren't going to get value from Blake at this point in any deal.
I don't see the point. You're paying a lot of money for a decent upgrade, but not worth the money.
Penos - He has a skillset that ages well, and he has gotten better with time. A 3 year deal with him is fine.
kensai - Too true, though I think Furcal rebounds at least some next year.
kensai - Not to mention that Blake makes Matt Kemp happy. Sort of like Jack Haley and Dennis Rodman, only Blake can actually play his sport and with fewer gay over and undertones. And like I said, Blake's value takes a shit if he is moved to first.
Except Figgins seems to be the one guy teams are going to spending on. So far, the Cubs, White Sox, Angels, are hard in, while teams like the Yankees are on the edge.
Also, how are we sure this season isn't a fluke? He hasn't shown this ability to walk until the last two seasons, and for all of his vaunted speed, he gets his ass caught on the bases a lot. He's already been caught 16 times this season, for a 72% success rate this year.
Tripon - His CS% has been poor this year and I can't figure out why. It isn't speed. It seems he has been picked too often.
As for the rest, I agree. The Angels actually will get in a bidding war for him and they will win. Scioscia wants him and that is where the buck stops.
Hey kensai, they put a Japanese-American guy on DWTS.
I think Figgins will have many suitors. I wouldn't go more than three years for him though. I think he stays in Anaheim.
It would be interesting to see Figgins in a more homer-happy park. He could probably do double digits in a place like Philly.
Figgins and Ichiro have been in a competition for best baserunner in baseball for a while now.
Actually, Ichiro is better, but Figgins is up there consistently.
:o
I hate to get off topic again, but Dodger post season tickets went on sale. I just got my tix for NLDS home game 1.
Penos - Damn. Nice. I screwed up and didn't register yet.
Alireza - I don't know what is left. I tried getting 2 tickets in field box, loge, infield reserve, but there was nothing left. I finally got two tix in reserve section 16.
Alireza - there are hundreds of auction for the NLDS on eBay. I think I might buy my tix for home games two and three there or on stubhub.
I refuse to pay a severe premium for any tickets. If I had the cash, I would consider such a move for the World Series. Otherwise, hell no.
You'll probably pay a larger premium through ticketmaster. They taxed me $12 on each ticket. A $6Building/Facility Charge and a $6 Convenience Charge.
Bastards.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/9/21/1046689/graph-of-the-day-los-angeles
Figgins is a cool and valuable player to have on your team, but there just isn't a fit with the Dodgers.
The one upgrade the Dodgers can make, and need to make, is at 1B. Loney is my man, but I think he's had enough time to show what he can do, and his production just doesn't play at that position. Every other position is filled for 2009.
Alex - The issue there is where to get a replacement. The FA group at the position isn't exactly overwhelming, except maybe for Adam LaRoche who is probably going to get paid 5 times what Loney will and is also brutally streaky. Might as well stick with Loney another year unless able to pull off a decent trade as teams like the Padres get even more skittish about their ability to hold on to and pay guys like Gonzalez.
Ali,
You're probably right. Then again, where there's a will there's a way. Loney is only ahead of Aubry Huff among all MLB 1b who have at least 400 PA in OPS+
A platoon, free agency, a trade... there ought to be a way to improve at that position.
Alex - A platoon makes little sense. Loney hits LHP well and most of the options on the market are LHB anyway.
Better to wait it out till either the Padres get really desperate, Lambo is ready or Loney realizes his potential.
speaking of O-Dog, he's not playing again today.
Furcal, SS
Ethier, RF
Manny, LF
Kemp, CF
Loney, 1B
Blake, 3B
Belliard, 2B
Martin, C
Kuroda, P
someone can repost it in the game thread later
,klllllllllllll. nnnnnnnnn ,82222222222222
my cat jumped on the keyboard.
hi guys
nice telciram
i thought this was the GD thread but i had the wrong tab open, which is why i said "hi guys". otherwise i wouldn't have posted it
telciram-Garland vs. Kershaw is even a debate?
Cabell-Possible, but he abuses everybody. Like I said at the time of the trade, if that's the case, they should replace the manager. :o
Alireza-Dacascos or whatever? He's typical Hawaii boy. All mixed up. Irish/Japanese/Filipino. Ha.
Alex/Alireza-Yes, signing a free agent isn't likely to improve the situation. A trade is probably the only option.
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