Russell Martin
He had an atrocious offensive season, posting a .250/.352/.329/.680 line with a pathetic .079 ISO. Martin's career low .285 BABIP was partially to blame for his low batting average as he set a career high in line drive percentage (20.5%) this year. While his batting average should have been closer to .270, and his OBP should have been closer to .370, there's nothing to excuse the disappearance of his pop.
While there are a lot of theories as to his offensive struggles, I believe the inability to hit the fastball is the main culprit. He hit .309 on fastballs last year, but this year he hit only .265. Martin's run value on fastballs was 8.9 in 2008, but plummeted to -0.8 in 2009. The common trend is an erosion in ability to hit the fastball consistently.
Fortunately, his peripherals maintained, as he walked 12.0 percent of the time and struck out 15.8 percent of the time. Martin chased pitches outside of the zone only 11% of the time before two strikes (19% Average), he chased pitches with two strikes only 29% of the time (38% Average), and chased on pitches significantly out of the zone only 12% of the time (20% Average). Traditional contact and chase percentages seem to support this assessment.
Regardless, the bottom line is that he had a clear regression in offensive skill this year, and he's going to have to rebound in 2010.
Defensively, he was about as good as last year. Martin's caught stealing percentage was better, but that's not really that important, because it doesn't reflect how horrid the Dodgers pitchers were at holding runners. Similarly, the passed balls and wild pitches allowed look bad, but the Dodgers staff is extremely wild. In previous catcher defense studies that I believe are the best we're going to see in a while, Martin has proven to be one of the better defenders in the league, and I didn't see much this year that dissuades me from continuing to go with that evaluation.
Overall, I think it's obvious that Martin didn't have his best year in 2009. However, looking forward, even if Martin never fully bounces back and instead settles in as a .270 hitter with a .370 OBP and good defense, he's going to be an asset to the team. In fact, I think this year was a wakeup call for many fans, as they finally got to see what a league average catcher really looks like.
There have been lots of calls to trade Martin recently, and while I am more frustrated with him than most because I have always liked him, I still believe it would be the worst time to deal him. After all, in what world does it make sense to trade an asset after its value has cratered? There's no upside in that because the trading partner is in a win-win scenario while the best you can do is break even.
Personally, I believe that Martin did suffer significantly from losing too much weight after he tried to change his off-season routine, and while he may never reach his peak years in 2007 and 2008 again, he should be more than worth his contract going forward.
Brad Ausmus
He performed about as well as you could expect a reserve catcher to perform. He was an adequate receiver and hit .295/.343/.368/.712 in limited time. Of course that line was primarily powered by an extremely lucky .370 BABIP, but he did produce.Though for all the talk about him handling pitchers, the staff did better with Martin behind the plate than Ausmus. Granted, that could be just luck, but I don't think there's much to the notion of him being some magic worker as a game caller.
Like Martin, his surface defensive statistics of caught stealing and blocking were poor, but that's mainly a factor of the Dodgers staff than anything. He blocked balls better than Martin did, but his days of stopping the run game are long gone.
The chances of Ausmus repeating his 2009 season next year are extremely low, at least from the offensive side of things, but the Dodgers could do much worse at backup in 2010.
A.J. Ellis
In his limited time with the team, he looked pretty bad at the plate and behind it. That doesn't mean that's going to be the story of his big league career, but there's not much positive performance to analyze.It seems like he would be a fine reserve should Ausmus retire or demand too much money, but the notion that he could be another Paul LoDuca is far fetched. Compare their minor league lines and then consider that LoDuca was only truly notable because he was on steroids in the majors.
It's true that Ellis has good on-base skills and makes solid contact at a good rate, but he has no power and struggled to thrive even in some of the most favorable conditions in the minors. Plus, he'll be 29-years-old next season, which is a bit late to be hoping for some kind of skills breakout.
18 Comments:
Russell Martin didn't hit his first homerun until June 20. I think this was a huge factor in this terrible offensive season. Before, and after he hit that homerun, he was swinging for the fences a lot. It really kept him from swining the bat naturally. Although he hit 19 homeruns in 2007, he's not a power hitter. I think he needs to realize this moving forward. He'll have more success if he understands that he's a contact hitter.
I find it surprising that he had a career high in line drive percentage.
Unluckiest son of a bitch on earth.
You ganked my bit!
Just kidding. Love the hit zone charts.
Just a question on your review of Ellis. I agree he has no power, and that he does make contact, but how does that help his batting averag in ABQ? Thin air only helps power hitters, it doesnt help you hit singles does it? I just dont see how ABQ could help, but then again, I dont know that it doesnt
Martin was incredibly unlucky this year. Lots of line drives into gloves. That said, even though he is not specifically a power hitter, he should have been hitting for more power and should definitely be hitting fastballs better. This is a guy who whacked a 99 or 100 MPH heater from Matt Lindstrom in 2008. His problems this year were pretty clear. He watched too many fat pitches, especially hanging breaking balls, then lengthened his swing and missed heat. The power is obviously still there, given his performance in the WBC and Spring Training, but Martin thrives when he has that compact, level swing that is kind of like using the bat as a tennis racket or a whip. I still think something Don Mattingley did with him is the root cause of this, because there is a marked difference between Martin pre-Mattingley and after Don took over after the ASB last year.
bluetrain - As illustrated by post-humidor Coors; high, dry fields can affect all kinds of offense. The conditions sap a significant amount of movement from pitches, which is why a guy like Derek Lowe gets murdered at Coors. So yes, singles hitters can be significantly aided.
I never understood the idea that Martin had 25 homer power, or could hit 330. Even though he came close in 07, I've always seen him as more of a 285. 370. 435 guy. But that is enough to make him a star at the catcher position.
It will be interesting to see if Ned has the balls to lock him up long term now when his value is low. Or if Martin would be willing to sign such a contract.
Kensai, I hope Memories of Kevin Malone and MSTI are not going to be in sync with all of their 09 reviews. I will still read them both :)
lFunny MSTI commented here...
They just killed Martin on their site....bit over the top in my view.
Not that anyone cares about my review of reviews, but...
MOKM 1
MSTI 0
dsheridan88 - I agree. I can't stand Russell Martin, but even I have to admit MSTI went a bit overboard with his F grade. Yes, Russell had a disappointing year, and I don't see him being anything better than a league-average catcher. It's not his fault though. Russell has been absolutely abused over the last three seasons.
Penos - Can't stand him? The guy who carried the team for more than a year and a half while playing the toughest position on the field at a very high level.
1) A league average hitter at catcher is an all star
2) Martin can hit over .300 if he is not dreadfully unlucky and poorly handled
3) His defense is absolutely elite.
Get him back to his pre-Mattingley approach and give him decent rest and Russ will be just fine.
Alireza - Plus, he is great at handling the pitching staff. I like Russell behind the plate, although he seemed a bit tired at the end of the season and into the playoffs, especially when it came to blocking pitches in the dirt. It seemed like a lot of balls got away from him (is there a stat on that?).
He just couldn't hit.
bluetrain-It would seem that way, but it affects everything. Outfielders play deeper, pitchers pitch different, any power he did produce was more likely a factor of the park than actual skill, which is scary.
Well, what i'm saying is that he's still a league average catcher even at this point.
MSTI is saying that if you compare what he did to the lofty expectations, it's an F.
It's like if Albert Pujols hit .280/.380/.500. Is that still good? Yes, but it's an F compared to his expectations. :o
Chad's got it right on - I was comparing Martin to his expectations, not the league average. If I did it that way, no one who's not Pujols or Lincecum gets an A.
League average catcher? Sure, why not. But huge failure based on what we thought he could be? Definitely.
Penos-I think he didn't hit his first home run because he was too busy plugging his model gf and doing yoga shit like Vince from Entourage.
MSTI-Hahaha. I just noticed. :o
Table-I never thought Martin was a 25 HR/.330 guy. He never needed to be.
Shit, with his overall package, i'm totally fine with .275/.375 and 10 HR. Just not fucking .250 with 3 HR.
Alireza-Maybe, but all indications for normal players would seem to indicate a deteroration in skills.
Penos-Yes, there is a stat on that, but it's not measured to average or in context, so it's meaningless.
CS% is meaningless too. If you catch 75% of the runners but all your pitchers slidestep and they are all on pitchouts with James Loney running, it doesn't mean you're a good thrower. :o
We're blaming the pitching staff for his weak defensive abilities? Oh. and I suppose Martin is getting credit for the top CERA in the league?
This fangraphs article shows what a sham the guy really is, and the notion that he's a good defensive catcher is a ludicrous one. Anyone who watches the game can see the guy can't block a ball in front of him to save himself.
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in
I'm not blaming the pitching staff for anything, i'm just stating the facts that they have poor records at holding runners and throwing balls in the dirty.
I give no credit for CERA, because it's meaningless.
FanGraphs article shows that he was a top five defender in the majors for the past two years. It's the most complete study i've seen. It takes into account the context of the pitching staff.
That Driveline Mechanics article is not a WOWY (With Or Without You) study, as it readily admits in the introduction.
Why would it make sense to judge without the context of the pitchers? If Yadier Molina caught for Chris Young and allowed 10 SB to 2 CS, does that mean he's a bad throwing catcher? No. It means Chris Young takes 5 seconds to get to the plate.
I don't see how anybody can take any study seriously that DOESN'T take into account the pitcher's ability.
I'm sure you won't respond to this, but i'd like to know why I should take your assertions seriously when they come without any context.
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