10/09/2009

Gritty Veteran Clutch Starters

Starting pitchers in the postseason need previous experience in that role to be successful, right? Yes, according to the mainstream media. No, according to me.

Postseason Starting Experience

Chris Carpenter
C.C. Sabathia
Aaron Cook
John Lackey
Cole Hamels
Jon Lester
Ubaldo Jimenez

40 IP-20 ER
4.50 ERA

Regular Season Baseline

1372 IP-536 ER
3.52 ERA

Postseason Starting Inexperience

Randy Wolf
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Brian Duensing
Clayton Kershaw

32 IP-11 ER
3.09 ERA

Regular Season Baseline

934 IP-315 ER
3.04 ERA

Starting experience hasn't seemed to matter so far, and I don't think that should be a surprise. Skills matter more than experience does, and I can't think of a time that hasn't been true. After all, no amount of experience is going to make Livan Hernandez better than Clayton Kershaw.

Keep your experience, i'll take the talent.

42 Comments:

telciram said...

Are you kidding? BBshaw and girly-man-"oh-look-at-me-i'm-mentally-weak"ingsley are not true aces!!!!

Dey dn't hav teh x-perencez.

telciram said...

http://photos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs218.snc1/8522_185593073664_625213664_3619755_2480665_n.jpg

KempKershaw said...

The really interesting guy to me on that list is Hamels.

His peripherals were much better than his ERA would suggest, and his xFIP and FIP were also better than his ERA this year.

Taking into consideration yesterday, his wife and the possibility she might go into labor (which of course happened), and I look at him separate from he rest.

Admittedly I say this without looking at the others' numbers.

I guess my point is I expect a big year from Hamels in 2010.

Kyle said...

Was his wife going into labor the entire season?

KempKershaw said...

Kyle- Had you actually read what I wrote, you would see that I said his peripherals were better than his ERA (which clearly implies that that point relates to the season at large), while his wife would relate specifically to last night.

Of course he's had bad starts, everyone does, but my point is he's pitched better than people (clearly including you) think he has this season.

labaseballfan said...

agreed...experience pays off in a long run. short series...go with the hot hand...your best pitcher at that time.

Tripon said...

You know, if Hamels really were that distracted by his wife's labor, then he should have started game 2 in the first place.

The Stig said...

If his wife was going to be any distraction at all, Charlie should have gone with Joe Blanton in Game 2 then Hamels in Game 3. Instead Charlie's head exploded and his pitching coach didn't do anything helpful. That's fine... let those two teams grind it out and we will see what happens in the NLCS.

I Alivandi said...

KK - Hamels' mechanics are kind of scary. I worry about his arm degenerating and taking his stuff with it.

Table said...

Fing Yankees!!

Table said...

The new Yankee Stadium is a joke

Bayareadfan said...

Why couldn't the Twins just let the Tigers have it, at least they had a shot at the Yanks.

Table said...

Bayareadfan- But the Twins had it!!! A 3-1 lead in the 9th only to blow it, and then load the bases in the 11th with no outs but fail to score, just terrible.

Yanks v Angels

Dodgers v Phillies

Bayareadfan said...

Table - you made my point. Now they're 0-9 against the Yanks for the year. Can't close 3-1, can't score with bases loaded, no outs. Nice.

If the Dodgers did this, we'd all be slitting our wrists.

Chad said...

KK-Hamels is good, the experience doesn't matter though.

labaseballfan-Why does experience ever matter besides a player's skills still getting better?

Alireza-He's always been an injury prone type of guy.

Table-Well they did get jobbed by that call.

Chad said...

Point being, regardless of situation, i'll take the superior talent. They are more likely to be better.

Hot hands can start and end at random. Carpenter can get shelled, it happens. Doesn't make him a choker because he had one bad game. Same with CC's past or whatever.

It's why you don't trade your entire system for a Halladay, because one bad start, and you've wasted everything for nothing.

Bayareadfan said...

At least the Angels are coming through. 4-1 going to the 8th...

Bayareadfan said...

Can't forget about Loney. I've been meaning to comment on his effort yesterday, when he came up big twice and was the unsung hero of the game.

That cut-off to nab Rasmus most likely saved a run which then makes the 9th inning heroics all the more unlikely.

Then, his liner that Holliday dropped was well hit. Matt should have caught it, but it wasn't a can of corn by any stretch, James didn't make it easy by blistering it out there. Good piece of hitting...and running, to get his slow ass to 2nd. He's having a great series.

JuanLove said...

Red Sox are dead.
they look disinterested


that series is a sweep

Eric Stephen said...

Amen

Bayareadfan said...

Yep...in a weird quirk of scheduling, the Dodgers were already up 2-0 when the first Angels-Sox game was just starting, and now they Angels are up 2-0 a day later.

Somebody has to take down the Yankees, might as well be the team with the best chance.

Bayareadfan said...

Umps reviewed the incorrect Mauer foul call, and they feel real bad that the wrong call was made.

Just FYI.

JuanLove said...

the Tex HR was wack
he even said he was surprised it went out. he was running hard to make sure if anything, he at least would get a double

telciram said...

I want a Dodgers/Yanks WS, although a Dodgers/Angels would be a nice consolation prize.

JuanLove said...

you know what gets me mad.

"oh the cards aren't dead yet. don't count them out yet."

f that. dont count out the Dodgers either.
i think all those chances to close out the West helped us out

I hope

PenosCabell said...

The Dodgers need to kick the Cardinals while they're down. This series ends tomorrow.

Bayareadfan said...

I'm always leery of wanting certain match ups, "be careful what you wish for" and so on. That being said, I'm pretty guilty of wanting the path of least resistance, even though that can easily bite us in the ass.

Look how bad the Cards wanted us, and look what they got. Actually, everyone wanted us, so you gotta keep that in the back of your mind. I was kinda pissed to get the Cards, but now we're 2-0, so I guess I'll be happy with all comers.

I hope we win tomorrow. Last thing we want to do is give some life back, and losing just adds unneeded pressure. Now, TLR is saying Carpenter is an option for game 4.

JuanLove said...

Pineiro in September and his one october start has been pretty pedestrian to say the least.

got to jump on him early and give Padilla something to work with

score first and get to the pen in like the 6th and we got it

KempKershaw said...

kensai- My point with Hamels is simply that I think he's been quite unlucky this year, and has pitched better than his ERA would suggest.

Bayareadfan said...

Excellent synopsis of Card fan reaction last night:

http://deadspin.com/5378102/the-bitter-tears-of-the-best-fans-in-baseball

Bayareadfan said...

Cards reaction from the first two games...they are hitting well, just need to "get the breaks"...

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7035405

Exactly mirrors how we felt in the 4 game series in StL. BTW, I feel as a whole in the 9 games the teams have played this year, the Cards have already gotten most of the breaks, they just didn't get all of them and I guess they feel they deserve all of them.

Usually doesn't work that way. Even in the 2 wins the last few days, the Dodgers are hitting the ball hard and right to the Cards defenders.

Bayareadfan said...

Main concern for tomorrow is the lack of killer instinct this team has shown all year. A 95-67 record is very good, but it came with not a whole lot of sweeps, only a handful of sweeps all year.

The Dodgers themselves were never swept (2 game chickenshit series don't count), so we have that going for us. Please guys, come out fired up and remember YOUR feet are on THEIR throats! Fucking FINISH them!! None of these taking it easy bullshit.

Pretty please, with a cherry on top.

PenosCabell said...

Bayareadfan - Agreed. In game one, when the Dodgers wre leaving runners on base, they were hitting the ball on the screws. Pineiro is no Chris Carpenter. I think the Dodgers will beat up on him.

The Stig said...

If I was LaRussa, I would go Carp game 4 and Wainwright game 5... it is their only hope. That being said, I hope we finish the Cards off and beat Pineiro back into obscurity. As good as Carp and Wainwright have been all year, I do not want to see them both again. Get it done boys!

labaseballfan said...

wish we can get it done saturday...but this team...ummm. but then again, if we don't win, our chances of winning this series greatly lessens. it's back to carp and wainw again. and we have to rely on kershaw to bring it home. that might be tough.

Bayareadfan said...

They put up the cheesy Darth Vader video from last Saturday's Star Wars Day clincher game:

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7035405

labaseballfan said...

one more thing...seeing other series...sure hope the umpire crew perform better in this series than some like yankees series...missed LF line call and ball/strikes are all over the place. go blue

Bayareadfan said...

The other side of the coin is Carp/Wain with 3 days of rest is not the same as Carp/Wain with 5 days...or even 4 days.

Chad said...

Bayareadfan-Don't like the Angels. A lot of them are just Dodgers fans that jumped on a bandwagon.

I love when officials apologize after the game. Yeah, that makes players feel a lot better.

JuanLove-Well, they aren't dead yet. Piniero, Carpenter, Wainwright against Padilla, Billingsley, Wolf.

I'm not celebrating yet.

Chad said...

JuanLove-Both are pretty average pitchers. Piniero hasn't been good at the end, but neither has Padilla.

KK-Of course Hamels is still good.

labaseballfan-You really think Torre will skip Wolf for Kershaw?

I Alivandi said...

The Yanks should worry. The Dodgers and Angels are probably the toughest matchups for them.

Chad said...

That would be interesting.