Manny Ramirez: 20 Million Dollar Player OptionDecision: His future with the Dodgers isn't within the team's control right now. They should be hoping he comes back, not necessarily because he's worth it, but because there's nobody else that's better.
He must decide his future with the Dodgers by the fifth day after the World Series ends or by November 10th, whichever comes later.
If he does not opt out of his contract, he will receive 5 million in 2010, 3.3 million in 2011, 3.3 million in 2012, and 8.3 million in 2013.
He has a full no-trade clause.
In the most literal sense, Manny isn't worth 20 million dollars, and he hasn't been in most of his recent years. He was worth it last year, but prior to that, the last time he was worth over 20 million was in 2003. Why? Simply put, his fielding generally costs him about 20-30% of his value in hitting, so it cuts significantly into his worth.
That said, Manny is the type of guy you do overpay for because of his star qualities. Somebody like Alex Rodriguez is another good example. Of course, the problem currently facing the Dodgers is whether or not Manny will actually perform next year.
As i've mentioned before, the steroids excuse doesn't really hold water with me, because I didn't see any indication that he had stopped using. In fact, as soon as he came back from that suspension, he was destroying the ball at an even more proflific rate than before. Sure, the slump could have been steroid related, or it could've been that he got hit on the hand, the event that just so happened to mark the exact date Manny started going downhill. Personally, age is a much bigger concern, as even known steroid users have shown significant decline in their late 30s, except for Barry Bonds, because he was a genetic anomoly.
Given that a decline is coming at some point in the near future, I wouldn't necessarily mind if Manny opted out, but my concerns about losing him stem from a lack of better options out there.
Bobby Abreu, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, and Hideki Matsui all have just as many questions as Manny does, and they are generally inferior players to him. Matt Holliday would be the only considerable improvement, but somehow I doubt he's a realistic option with the Dodgers ownership situation the way it is.
Regardless, I suppose the bottom line is that Manny's not opting out in the first place. Scott Boras is not an idiot, and there's no way Manny gets more than 20 million dollars in this economy with questions about his character, steroid use, and poor late season performance. Like it or not, the Dodgers are stuck with him for another year.
Jon Garland: 10 Million Dollar Mutual Option
Decision: Decline his option and take the free buyout. Let another team pay for marginal performance.
If the Dodgers decline, the buyout is 2.5 million. If Garland declines, the buyout is 1 million. Either way, the buyout sum will be paid by the Diamondbacks, as it was the terms of the trade involving Tony Abreu.
If Garland ends up as a Type A free agent, the Dodgers cannot offer him arbitration.
There's something to be said for consistency, and Garland has thrown over 190 innings in each of the past eight seasons. Unfortunately, his ERA in seven of those eight years has been over four, and his FIP has never been lower than 4.24 during that span. He owns a career 4.42 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 104 ERA+, which are not exactly numbers to get excited about.
Garland gave the Dodgers his best during his tenure, as he posted a 2.72 ERA in six starts, but he is exactly the type of guy you want to cut bait with after the season concludes. The Dodgers got excellent performance out of him that likely boosted his value, but his career shows an overwhelming trend of mediocrity, so let somebody else pay for an illusion.
The absolute last thing you want to do is what the Cardinals did with Kyle Lohse. They signed him to a 4-year, 41 million dollar contract after they got him off the mediocre pitcher scrap heap in 2008 and had Dave Duncan retool him. Now they're stuck with an aging mediocre pitcher with a career ERA+ of 96 for three more years. It's a lesson.
Speaking of age, Garland is entering his age 30 season, it's likely that Garland only gets worse going forward. The move to the National League helped his surface statistics, but he was still the same pitcher with the same skill set.
200 innings of league average ball might be worth a lot to teams without any other starting pitching options, but the Dodgers simply can't afford to throw 10 million dollars to a back of the rotation starter in their current financial situation, especially with the depth of young arms chomping at the bit to get an opportunity to start.
Will Ohman: 2.2 Million Dollar Club Option
Decision: The Dodgers already declined the option.
The buyout was a mere 0.2 million dollars.
It was a horrid season for him, and to make matters worse, the Dodgers declined his 2010 option in the middle of the playoffs.
This is already a done deal, so there's no insight to give here, but it's worth noting.
