The 2009 Opening Day payroll was approximately 100 million dollars, and given all the recent divorce news, I find it hard to believe that number would be increased going into 2010. Therefore, my plan is based on a operating budget of about 100 million dollars with perhaps a bit of flexibility.Just to clarify, this is what I would do if I were the GM.
Projected 2010 Payroll-100 Million Dollars
As I showed in this post, there are 19 players that are already under contract for 2010, and all but a few should remain with the team.
Hiroki Kuroda|13 Million
Rafael Furcal|8.5 Million
Casey Blake|6 Million
Payroll|27.5 Million
25 Roster|3
40 Roster|3
There's nothing the Dodgers could or should realistically do with these three.
Juan Pierre|5 Million
Trade To The White Sox/Mets For Cash
Payroll|32.5
25 Roster|3
40 Roster|3
Pierre is a player the Dodgers should look to actively shop this offseason. He does have value if he comes at a reduced price, especially to teams like the New York Mets and Chicago White Sox, who are desperate for a decent outfielder. Therefore, I would explore if either team would be willing to eat about 8.5 million of the 18.5 million Pierre's owed over the next two years. That would likely amount to saving 5 million this year and 3.5 million next year, which would help the dire payroll situation considerably.
Pierre gets vilified on this site because of his horrid contract, but if the Dodgers signed him for 2 years and 8.5 million dollars, I really wouldn't have much to complain about. He certainly worth just over 4 million a year, especially to a team in need of outfield help.
Would the other teams do it though? I honestly think so.
For the Mets, it's clear that Daniel Murphy, Gary Sheffield, Fernando Tatis, and Jeremy Reed are not the answer in left, as they are all mediocre in some way or another. Fernando Martinez could be a possibility in left, but he's injury prone, and he looked pretty horrid out there last year, so i'm not sure how confident the Mets are in just giving him the job.
As for the White Sox, they are currently working on a deal with Scott Podsednik, and they would still have one outfield opening left after that. I think that says it all.
Now I can already seeing Dodgers fans decrying this move because it leaves the Dodgers without a backup plan for Manny Ramirez. However:
1) Manny would have to tank about 150 OPS points for Pierre to match him in value.
2) Risks have to be taken when you are operating with a slashed payroll. The Dodgers need to save money, and a prime place to start is with a fourth outfielder making a ton of cash.
Sorry, but this makes sense.
Clayton Kershaw|0.405 Million (Estimate)
Ramon Troncoso|0.405 Million (Estimate)
Ronald Belisario|0.405 Million (Estimate)
James McDonald|0.405 Million (Estimate)
Eric Stults|0.405 Million (Estimate)
Brent Leach|0.4 Million (Estimate)
Blake DeWitt|0.41 Million (Estimate)
Chin Lung Hu|0.405 Million (Estimate)
Xavier Paul|0.4 Million (Estimate)
Payroll|36.14 Million
25 Roster|12
40 Roster|12
Kershaw might be the ace of the staff in 2010. Troncoso and Belisario are easy choices for the bullpen. McDonald should compete for the job of the fifth starter, while Stults will serve as the swingman. Leach will be the last man out of the bullpen this season, and his spot will likely be a fluid one. However, I liked what I saw last year from a stuff perspective, and believe he could be quite effective. DeWitt will be replacing Mark Loretta's role as the utility guy, Hu will be replacing Juan Castro's role as backup shortstop, and Paul will take over for Pierre as the fourth outfielder.
Personally, I would love to extend Kershaw to something like a six year deal at this point, but with the financial situation the way it is, the Dodgers are going to have to pay him the minimum as long as they still can. It sucks, but that's a reality for now.
Does the entire roster construction to this point sound cheap? Yes, but that's a requirement now.
Charlie Haeger|0.065 Million (Estimate)
Cory Wade|0.065 Million (Estimate)
Travis Schlichting|0.065 Million (Estimate)
A.J. Ellis|0.065 Million (Estimate)
Payroll|36.4 Million
25 Roster|12
40 Roster|16
Haeger would be a great reserve starter option. Wade could make the bullpen if he ever recovers from being abused by Joe Torre, and Schlichting could be a surprise if he ever figures out his command. Ellis makes a suitable reserve catcher. I don't have any of them in the major leagues, but they are all worthy of roster spots.
Andruw Jones|4.75 Million
Jason Schmidt|2.5 Million
Nomar Garciaparra|1.25 Million
Will Ohman|0.2 Million
Payroll|45.1 Million
25 Roster|12
40 Roster|16
Unfortunately, the Dodgers owe a ton of money to players that aren't even going to be affiliated with the franchise for 2010. This will eat payroll as well (8.7 Million), and there's nothing the Dodgers can do about it.
Manny Ramirez|10 Million
Payroll|55.1 Million
25 Roster|13
40 Roster|17
That's right folks, Manny only makes 10 million dollars next year. Unfortunately, he also makes 8.3 million dollars for the next three years after that. That's why deferring salary sucks.
Next up on my list are the arbitration eligibles. They are still under team control, but there's a variety of ways to handle their individual situations. I've already estimated what each player would get in arbitration here, but letting all of them go to arbitration is not something I want to do.
Matt Kemp|4 Million
Sign To A 6 Year, 66 Million Dollar Extension
Payroll|59.1 Million
25 Roster|14
40 Roster|18
It shouldn't be a question as to why I want to extend Kemp, but as far as the actual number goes, it's the same amount Nick Markakis got last year. While true that Kemp is better than Markakis, the market seems even further depressed now, so I think this is a reasonable deal. As with Markakis, I think Kemp would be willing to take a depressed salary next year in order to make exponentially more as he approaches the final years of his contract.
This deal would buy out three arbitration years, three free agent years, and would secure Kemp through his age 30 season.
Andre Ethier|6 Million
Sign To 5 Year, 60 Million Dollar Extension
Payroll|65.1 Million
25 Roster|15
40 Roster|19
Honestly, the Dodgers screwed themselves by not signing him long term last year. Now he's a bonafide middle of the order producer, and they're going to have to pay him like one.
The reason I prefer a 5 year deal at higher money with Ethier is because he's already 28 next year, and this contract would secure him through his age 32 season. This contract only buys out his three arbitration years and two free agent years, but it's worth it just in case he does start to decline early.
Russell Martin|5.2 Million
Jonathan Broxton|5 Million
Chad Billingsley|4.2 Million
George Sherrill|4 Million
James Loney|2.6 Million
Hong Chih Kuo|1.3 Million
Payroll|87.4 Million
25 Roster|21
40 Roster|25
I'd rather not extend anybody on this list yet. If the Dodgers had a larger payroll, I would take more risks, but with so much unknown at this point, it's impossible to assume you could eat a decent size contract extension if it bombs.
Martin is a risk for obvious reasons, and i'm not sure the Dodgers gain anything by buying out his free agent years. He will be 30 by the time he is done with arbitration, which happens to be about the time catchers start to show signs of wear and tear.
Broxton is not an extension candidate simply because he's a reliever. Don't get me wrong, he is an elite level closer, but willingly paying huge money for such a volatile position is not exactly ideal.
In Billingsley's case, i'm not worried about his performance when healthy, but i'd like to see another year to prove that he is actually okay. This is a guy I would take a risk on signing to an extension if the Dodgers had a half decent owner, but they don't, so the Dodgers couldn't afford to eat his contract if he needed labrum repair or something. Besides, starting pitchers are overpriced anyway, so I doubt the Dodgers would stand to lose much by waiting another year.
Nobody in their right mind would extend Sherrill. He's overpaid as it is.
I'm not a huge fan of Loney right now, so naturally i'm going year to year with him. I would love to replace him with Fielder or Gonzalez, but that's honestly not likely to happen.
Kuo is a great pitcher, but extending a reliever with four elbow surgeries is a hilarious thought.
Jason Repko|0 Million
Non-tender him instead of offering arbitration.
Payroll|87.4 Million
25 Roster|21
40 Roster|25
Paying him isn't really worth the trouble, and he wasn't going to be used at the major league level anyway.
Next up are the free agents, and it's a long list, but i've luckily already made my suggestions.
Orlando Hudson|Offer Arbitration|Get First Round Pick And Supplemental Pick
Randy Wolf|Offer Arbitration|Get First Round Pick And Supplemental Pick
Ronnie Belliard|Offer Arbitration|Get Supplemental Pick
Jon Garland|Don't Offer Arbitration
Vicente Padilla|Don't Offer Arbitration
Guillermo Mota|Don't Offer Arbitration
Will Ohman|Don't Offer Arbitration
Jim Thome|Let Him Walk
Jason Schmidt|Let Him Walk
Mark Loretta|Let Him Walk
Juan Castro|Let Him Walk
Jeff Weaver|Let Him Walk
Doug Mientkiewicz|Let Him Walk
Eric Milton|Let Him Walk
Payroll|87.4 Million
25 Roster|21
40 Roster|25
First Round|2
Supplemental|3
I've already explained my justification for all of these moves in the free agency post. I'm pretty sure all of the players offered arbitration would turn it down. If not, that actually makes things easier.
Brad Ausmus|1.3 Million
Sign To A 1 Year, 1.3 Million Dollar Contract
Payroll|88.7 Million
25 Roster|22
40 Roster|26
First Round|2
Supplemental|3
He has already said that he's willing to play in 2010, and I can't see any reason why coming back to the Dodgers would be a problem. Guaranteeing the money from his incentives last year should be enough to get it done.
All of the above moves leave the Dodgers with about 11 million left to spend and three positions left to fill: second base, starting pitcher, and bench player. Now things start to get more interesting.
Dan Uggla|7.8 Million
Trade Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, And Lucas May To The Florida Marlins For Dan Uggla
Payroll|96.5 Million
25 Roster|23
40 Roster|27
First Round|2
Supplemental|3
When it was initially rumored that he was on the block, I was quite opposed to acquiring him, but now that I have looked at the second base market, I understand why he would be coveted.
Hudson is likely not returning to the Dodgers, so that leaves Felipe Lopez, Placido Polanco, and Chone Figgins as the best remaining free agent options.
Lopez is coming off a career year in 2009, and that's exactly the problem. His excellent year was powered by an unsustainable .360 BABIP (.323 Career BABIP), he doesn't play great defense, he's a Type B free agent, and he's likely to command a 2-3 year deal worth 7-9 million annually. Polanco is interesting, but he has downside as well. His offensive and defensive skills are starting to show regression, he's getting old, and he's a Type A free agent. Besides, even if he were to repeat what he did last year, he's not much better than Belliard. Figgins would probably be a significant upgrade, but there's no indication the Angels will be outbid for him. Even if the Dodgers could sway him, they can't afford to spend their remaining payroll on a single player. Furthermore, Figgins has only played 113 games at second base, so there's just too many obstacles to get this done.
Given all of that mess, I conclude that acquiring Uggla via trade is the best option. Uggla wants to remain at second base, and the Dodgers would obviously be willing to make that happen. He's a power threat that will take a walk, and that's always dangerous.
A lot of fans focus on the low batting average and high strikeout totals, but his approach is actually improving. He still strikes out a lot, but his walk percentage has gone up every year he has been in the league (7.3%/9.7%/12.7%/14.0%). That clear improvement is likely caused by Uggla swinging at less and less pitches out of the zone (21.6%/21.6%/21.0%/18.7%). Furthermore, he's coming off a depressed year that was likely caused by an unlucky .277 BABIP. Uggla's career BABIP is .300, and he set a career high in line drive percentage last year (17.0%), so he's better than he showed in 2009. Even a decent bounce back year would put him around the top five offensive second basemen in all of baseball. Better yet, he has another year of arbitration remaining after 2010, and he's still in his prime (entering 30-year-old season).
Defense seems to be a real negative to some people, but his career UZR/150 at second base is -2.9, which is not that far from average, and about what Hudson has been rated as recently. That defensive rating for Uggla is supported by his career PM/1350 of -4.5, so it's clear that he's merely below average. Surprisingly though, he's a pretty solid baserunner, as he provides positive value in that aspect of the game.
All in all, the Dodgers are likely trading for a 3.6-4.2 WAR player next year, which is a sizable upgrade from 2009.
The biggest question remaining is what the Marlins would want for him. They likely do not want players who are arbitration eligible or are soon to be arbitration eligible, because the whole point of trading Uggla is to save money. The organizational philosophy there seems to be one of acquiring young power arms with high upside and riding them out until late in arbitration or free agency.
I choose Elbert because he could jump right into the rotation for the Marlins in 2010 as a fifth starter, and he still holds star potential in that arm if he straightens out his command a bit more. If it wasn't for this trade, I would have liked him to get a shot at the Dodgers rotation.
Lindblom provides a back of the bullpen type arm, or a back of the rotation type starter, depending on what the Marlins want to use him for. There's not much star potential there, but I don't see him as a bust either.
May has undergone a career resurgence this year, as he proved he can handle AA pitching after breaking his wrist, and is lighting up the AFL right now. The problem with him is still his defense, but it's allegedly being addressed. I think he has a good chance to be a regular for the Marlins after John Baker hits arbitration, especially given that Kyle Skipworth doesn't look to be anywhere near the fast track anymore.
I choose these three specific players because I highly doubt the Marlins would want to acquire an outfielder (Cameron Maybin/Mike Stanton), a first baseman (Logan Morrison/Gaby Sanchez), or a second baseman (Chris Coghlan).
Looking at the trade proposal, I believe that Marlins fans will feel they're getting too little in return, and Dodgers fans will feel like they're giving up too much. That only furthers my belief that is both a fair and realistic trade.
Erik Bedard|4 Million
Sign To A 1 Year, 4 Million Dollar Contract With Incentives Up To 10 Million Dollars
Payroll|100.5 Million
25 Roster|24
40 Roster|28
First Round|2
Supplemental|2
I wanted a high risk/high reward pitcher to fill out the rotation because it's the best way to find a potential ace quality starter on the cheap. It's desperate and quite risky, but the Dodgers have to resort to those types of deals if they don't want to spend money.
There were other options out there, but none of them appealed to me much. Kelvim Escobar bothered me because he essentially missed two years of action and still has an iffy elbow.
Justin Duchscherer produced like an ace in 2008, but it was largely powered by luck, so i'm not convinced he's even that great to begin with. He had elbow problems last year, but my main concern is that he missed the end of 2009 with a depression issue, which generally has no timetable. Plus, he's not getting any younger, and he only has a half season track record of success as a starter.
Rich Harden should be ready to begin the season, and this is his first year of free agency after having made 7 million last year. Given that he's currently healthy, he's likely to seek a 2-3 year deal of about 8-10 million dollars annually. Even if he would sign for 1 year, he's likely out of the Dodgers price range anyway.
Ben Sheets made 11 million in 2008, and even though he missed all of 2009, I think it's unlikely that his price ends up low because he's supposedly healthy now and teams are already lining up.
In the end, oddly enough, I think the fact that Bedard will not be ready to start 2010 healthy actually helps the Dodgers. Due to the surgery on his labrum and inflamed bursa in August, Bedard probably carries the most risk out of any pitcher on this list. However, he also likely carries the most upside of all the pitchers, as he is clearly capable of posting great numbers.
It's quite likely that Bedard will not even be at full strength until July or so, which will hurt the Dodgers chances to make the playoffs as they try to find rotation answers for the first month or so. However, taking this gamble could pay huge dividends if the Dodgers can make the playoffs with Bedard healthy, as opposing teams could be looking at one of the best four man rotations in the league.
Jamie Hoffmann|0.4 Million (Estimate)
Purchase His Contract From The Minor Leagues
Payroll|100.9 Million
25 Roster|25
40 Roster|29
First Round|2
Supplemental|2
He plays solid defense at both corners, runs well, and should be a decent hitter from the right side. He gets put on the big league squad because I think he's the best of the major league ready outfielders.
So now that the major league roster is fully filled out, the Dodgers have 11 spots left on the 40-man roster to add minor leaguers.
Ivan DeJesus|0.0325 Million
Trayvon Robinson|0.0325 Million
Kenley Jansen|0.0325 Million
Javy Guerra|0.0325 Million
Francisco Felix|0.0325 Million
Payroll|101.0625 Million
25 Roster|25
40 Roster|34
First Round|2
Supplemental|2
The players listed above are done so because they either need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft or because I think they are candidates to contribute immediately.
My final roster configuration leaves six open roster spots on the 40-man for whatever random assortment of veterans on minor league contracts.
Final Roster
C-Russell Martin
1B-James Loney
2B-Dan Uggla
3B-Casey Blake
SS-Rafael Furcal
LF-Manny Ramirez
CF-Matt Kemp
RF-Andre Ethier
B-Brad Ausmus
B-Blake DeWitt
B-Chin Lung Hu
B-Xavier Paul
B-Jamie Hoffmann
SP-Clayton Kershaw
SP-Chad Billingsley
SP-Erik Bedard
SP-Hiroki Kuroda
SP-James McDonald
CP-Jonathan Broxton
SU-George Sherrill
RP-Ramon Troncoso
RP-Ronald Belisario
RP-Brent Leach
RP-Hong Chih Kuo
SM-Eric Stults
MI-Charlie Haeger
MI-Cory Wade
MI-Travis Schlichting
MI-A.J. Ellis
MI-Ivan DeJesus
MI-Trayvon Robinson
MI-Kenley Jansen
MI-Javy Guerra
MI-Francisco Felix
MI-Open
MI-Open
MI-Open
MI-Open
MI-Open
MI-Open
Estimated Payroll-101.0625 Million
Free Agent Compensation-2 First Round Draft Picks And 2 Supplemental Round Draft Picks
Is this my ideal team? Absolutely not, but i'm not going to blame myself for it, nor would I even blame Ned Colletti or the rest of the front office. The fact of the matter is that all of these cost cutting moves, which are usually reserved for the bottom feeders of the league, are now part of the Dodgers strategy because of the McCourts.
Everybody wants Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, or Roy Halladay, but the Dodgers can barely afford to fill all the roster spots on their team with decent players, much less trade for an elite talent and pay them adequately. It's a joke, really.
Given the financial restrictions, I believe I did a decent job at constructing a roster that could make the playoffs in 2010 and beyond, while also concurrently keeping the Dodgers long-term future in tact as much as possible.
How will the actual offseason play out? We'll just have to wait and see, but it's clear that the front office has a sizable task ahead of them.
