Bill Belichick And Dumb People

If you watched yesterday's game between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, you undoubtedly saw Bill Belichick's failed decision to go for the first down on fourth and two from his own 28, up six points, and with 2:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. Well, unsurprisingly, there has been a lot of backlash against Belichick for making that call, and i'm here to say that if you think Belichick's decision was wrong, you're probably dumb.

If that sounds elitist it's because it sort of is. Sorry, but there's no way for me to sugarcoat it.

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Statistics (outstanding site, by the way) explains the situation best.

New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Basically, even not accounting for the context of the situation, Belichick's decision resulted in a 9% increase in the chances that the Patriots would win the game. Throw in the context that the Patriots have Tom Brady, the Colts have Peyton Manning, and that the two teams combined for 884 yards, and there really is no statistical argument against going for it in that situation.

Of course, there will always be those fans who can't understand statistics, or don't care to take them seriously, but even if you are one of those people, the decision still made complete sense.

By choosing to punt, the Colts would get the ball around their 30, resulting in a 40 yard gain in field position. That's not much of an advantage to get when you consider that the Colts have an elite offense and Peyton Manning running it, especially when the Colts essentially run a two minute drill as their standard mode of operation.

Perhaps more importantly though, with the game on the line, don't you want to put the ball in the hands of your own elite offense and Hall Of Fame quarterback? Why wouldn't you go to Tom Brady when the chips are down and you need a big play? How is that not better than simply praying Peyton Manning screws up? Furthermore, even if you don't get the two yards you need, your defense still has a shot at preventing the Colts from scoring a touchdown. It's not that hard, really.

On a side note, it sort of disgusts me that I have to defend the Patriots and Belichick.

So how does this discussion correlate to baseball at all? It doesn't really, but the negative fan reaction to Belichick's decision makes a point about analysis and logic. Point being, the common fan hates both of those things.

At times, I get the feeling that certain fans would justify pinch hitting Eric Hinske for Albert Pujols if it ended up working. Yet, I would bet those fans would be the ones complaining the loudest when the same thought process fails time and time again in the long run.

In that same vein, I suppose this situation is a great opportunity for me to drive home how stupid results based reactions are.

If the Patriots pick up the first down, Belichick gets labeled a genius by the media. Since the Patriots ended up getting stopped, Trent Dilfer almost has a brain aneurysm on live television and everybody thinks Belichick is an idiot.

Why does this disparity in perception exist? It doesn't make sense to me. Why can't something be completely correct and just happen to not work that one time? Stuff happens. Ugh.

Sorry for this off-topic rant, but I had to get it off my chest in a public forum. The Winter League updates are coming soon.