WEDNESDAY, 11:22pm: Dylan Hernandez tweets that in addition to Pineiro and Padilla, the Dodgers have recently contacted the agents for Braden Looper and Garland.Admittedly, my first reaction to this desperate search for a veteran is to hate it. All of the pitchers mentioned are relatively mediocre, and I would much rather the Dodgers save the limited money they have for a deadline acquisition, or maybe even to extend a younger player.
WEDNESDAY, 7:06pm: The Dodgers are open to bringing back Padilla if they are unable to land Pineiro, a major league source told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
9:55am: It's been a quiet offseason for the Dodgers, as they've unloaded Juan Pierre while adding Jamey Carroll and a cast of minor league signings. With Randy Wolf joining the Brewers, there's still a strong need to add a veteran starting pitcher.
The Dodgers' search is focused on Joel Pineiro and Vicente Padilla, reports MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. Gurnick indicates they've backed off on Jon Garland. The Dodgers are aiming for a one-year deal, which might put Pineiro out of reach. Still, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote today that the Dodgers "are going through the process of getting approval for the funds necessary to make a Pineiro deal." Ed Price of AOL FanHouse tweeted Monday that the Mets were talking to Pineiro about a two-year deal in the $15MM range, so it's probably a two-horse race.
A reunion with Padilla seems likely, especially if his price starts to plummet. Early in the offseason, interest was mutual. The Dodgers' main competition appears to be the Cardinals, who are trying to stretch $6-7MM across several needs.
However, before I rush to judgment, I will wait and see what the terms are. I have a hard time believing that any contract involving these four would be all that great, but i'm hopeful that Uncle Ned can pull another rabbit out of his ass like he did with Randy Wolf.
With all that said, let's take a look at the projections for 2010.
In order to get these numbers, I averaged the 2010 projections from the Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel systems for the IP and WHIP totals. I added xFIP from 2009 to the other three systems for the ERA projection.As you can clearly see, all things being equal, I would rank them Piniero, Garland, Padilla, and then Looper.
I can't see any reason the Dodgers would have interest in Looper, that is, unless he's willing to pay the team for the opportunity to pitch or something. Garland and Padilla are the most likely fits, mainly because the Dodgers are already familiar with them. However, I don't really like the idea, because what they did last year was as good as it's going to get with those two. Garland is a more consistent, albeit crappier, version of what Piniero was last year, and that's not a negative considering the work Piniero did and how volatile he can be. Padilla, on the other hand, is insane, and his handedness splits scare the everliving crap out of me. It's not a coincidence that he eventually got shelled by the Phillies, even though he was at his absolute best at the time.
As for Piniero, my past negative comments about him were operating under the assumption that he would be getting a three or four year contract that ranged between 12 and 14 million per year. However, now that it's being reported that Piniero's demands have come down, and that he is considering a two year contact for 7.5 million annually, i've completely changed my mind. The contract is always important, as the difference between signing an above average innings eater to a 56 million dollar contract and a 15 million dollar contract is more than enough to open my mind to the possibility of Piniero in blue.
Piniero isn't great, but players with large groundball percentage jumps haven't historically regressed significantly, and his other peripherals show promising trends.
Of course, the risk is that Piniero will completely regress after leaving pitching coach Dave Duncan, and while I can't dismiss that as a possibility, it wouldn't be the worst risk in the world at the current price.
