3/04/2010

High Strikeout Minor Leaguers And Their Futures


The curious case of Kyle Russell's strikeouts got me interested in other high strikeout prospects, so I took a look at the 25 minor leaguers with the most strikeouts in each individual year from 2000-2009 in order to see how many went on to have future success.

The results are after the jump, but just a warning, it's picture heavy.


2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

As you can see, the odds are not so great for Russell's future.  Sure, I realize the most recent years are less likely to produce major leaguers because those prospects haven't had the chance to pan out yet.  However, the fact remains that from 2000-2009, there were a mere eight notable major leaguers to come out of this group: Jack Cust, Wily Mo Pena, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Howard, Joey Votto, Mike Napoli, Nelson Cruz, and Chris Young.  While it's not a great ratio of major league usefulness to failures (~3.2%), the names on that list would seem to indicate that there's still some glimmer of hope.

Unfortunately, the bad news doesn't end with that poor ratio.  None of the eight mentioned struck out 180 times like Russell did, and only two (Pena at 177 and Gomes at 173) got relatively close.  Furthermore, Russell was 23 in A-ball, which is quite a different situation from a lot of the others listed.

Cust=21/AA|22/AAA|26/AAA
Pena=19/A
Gomes=21/A+|22/AAA
Votto=19/A
Cruz=23/AAA
Young=20/A
Howard=22/A|23/A+|24/AAA
Napoli=22/A+

As you can see, there are not many favorable comparables for Russell.  Regardless, the real question is what this all means.  Well, it's not a definitive answer for anything, but it certainly paints Russell as a long shot to have a productive major league career.

Edit-I missed Ryan Ludwick in 2006, though he was 27 at AAA, and didn't strikeout as much either.